Posted on 08/23/11
MIAMI — The rapidly intensifying Irene that’s already cut a destructive path through the Caribbean is the first hurricane to seriously threaten the U.S. in almost three years, a worry for some emergency management officials who hope people haven’t become complacent about the dangers.
Predictions by the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Irene was likely to become a major Category 3 hurricane later Tuesday.
By Thursday, as it roars toward the U.S. coast over warm open waters, it could become a Category 4, NHC hurricane specialist John Cangialosi said late Monday. Winds in such a storm can blow from 131 to 155 mph. By contrast, Hurricane Katrina was a Category 3 when it hit New Orleans in 2005.
Late Tuesday morning, the first Atlantic hurricane of the season had maximum sustained winds around 100 mph and was near the Turks and Caicos islands in the Caribbean.
Current projections have Irene tracking off Florida’s coast on Friday and then making landfall in the Carolinas on Saturday or Sunday. From there it could move into Chesapeake Bay, the hurricane center said. The last hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. was Ike, which pounded Texas in 2008.
The center did caution, however, that predictions made days in advance can be off by hundreds of miles. For instance, some models show Irene could remain offshore along the East Coast.
With tropical force winds that extend 205 miles and hurricane force winds 50 miles from Irene’s center, Irene could still hit Florida hard even if it doesn’t make landfall there.
Bryan Koon, director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, said after a meeting Monday with Gov. Rick Scott that the two have frequently discussed raising awareness since the Atlantic hurricane season began June 1.
“We want to make sure Floridians are paying attention,” Koon said. “We are at the height of the hurricane season right now. If it’s not Hurricane Irene, it could be the follow-up storm that impacts us.”
‘Take this storm seriously’
After several extremely active years, Florida has not been struck by a hurricane since Wilma raked across the state’s south in 2005. The Hurricane Center said it was responsible for five deaths in the state and came two months after Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans.
“For residents in states that may be affected later this week, it’s critical that you take this storm seriously,” said Craig Fugate, administrator at the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Julio Gonzalez in Miami was heeding the warnings and headed to a hardware store to pick up what he needed to protect his home.
“I’m gonna board up,” he said Monday. “It’s best to play it safe.”
Others were stocking up on bottled water and plywood. And Hurricane Irene was trending on Twitter.
The storm slashed directly across Puerto Rico, tearing up trees and knocking out power to more than a million people. It then headed out to sea, north of the Dominican Republic, where the powerful storm’s outer bands were buffeting the north coast with dangerous sea surge and downpours. President Barack Obama declared an emergency for Puerto Rico, making it eligible for federal help.
In the overseas U.K. territory of the Turks and Caicos, a steady stream of customers bought plywood and nails at hardware stores, while others readied storm shutters and emergency kits at home.
“I can tell you I don’t want this storm to come. It looks like it could get bad, so I’ve definitely got to get my boats out of the water,” said Dedrick Handfield at the North Caicos hardware store where he works.
Many of the center’s computer models had the storm veering northward away from Florida’s east coast toward Georgia and the Carolinas, but forecasters said much was still unclear.
“In terms of where it’s going to go, there is still a pretty high level of uncertainty,” said Wallace Hogsett, a National Hurricane Center meteorologist. “It’s a very difficult forecast in terms of when it’s going to turn northward.”
One key reason for that, he said, is the difficulty of measuring the effect on Irene of the high terrain of the island of Hispaniola, which is shared by Haiti and the Dominican. Hurricane warnings were up on the northern side of the Dominican Republic, as well as the Turks and Caicos islands just south of the long Bahamas chain. Forecasters say it depends on which way the storm veers after passing the Bahamas Tuesday or into Wednesday and heads into the very warm Atlantic waters.
And several past hurricanes have turned into Category 4 or 5 monsters but hit land with much less force.
The other big factor is exactly when the storm will encounter a higher-level trough along the U.S. East Coast, which will eventually turn it to the north.
“Timing is everything,” Hogsett said.
In South Carolina, state and coastal emergency agencies went on alert for possibly the first hurricane to hit there in seven years.
“This is potentially a very serious hurricane,” longtime Charleston Mayor Joseph P. Riley Jr. said. He led Charleston’s recovery from the massive destruction of Hurricane Hugo’s 135 mph winds and waves back in 1989.
Joe Farmer of the state Emergency Management Division said he’s not worried about complacency.
“If it does move this way, there will be a lot of public notice given and people will be warned,” he said.
It’s been more than a century since Georgia has taken a direct hit from a Category 3 storm or greater. That was in 1893 and the last hurricane to make landfall along the state’s 100-mile coast was David, which caused only minor damage when it struck in 1979.
In Tallahassee and across Florida, emergency management agencies were closely monitoring Irene’s movements and track. They urged residents to make sure they have batteries, drinking water, food and other supplies available in case Irene takes aim at the state.
“We must prepare for the worst and hope for the best,” said Joe Martinez, chairman of the Miami-Dade County Commission.
Gov. Scott met with state emergency management officials and the state meteorologist, poring over detailed charts involving windspeed and steering currents. Scott, a first-term Republican who has not experienced a hurricane as governor, asked questions such as how much advanced notice would be needed for evacuations of low-lying areas.
“Irene’s going to be close,” Amy Godsey, the state meteorologist, told Scott. “We’re not out of the woods yet.”
Scott replied, “I’m an optimist.”
Source (article): MSNBC
Source (picture): UPI.COM, FOXNEWS.COM